Around n one-third of this would be because of reductions in the traditional use of biomass as a result of shifts to clean cooking solutions. net-zero emissions) in the second half of this century. For the third year in a row, the power sector attracted more investment than the oil and gas industry. This is supported by additional spending on electricity grids and battery storage, in order to ensure reliable electricity supply. In the light of concern surrounding negative emissions technologies, it would be possible to construct a scenario that goes further than the Sustainable Development Scenario and delivers a 50% chance of limiting warming to 1.5 °C without any reliance on net-negative emissions. It would seem that the IEA’s "sustainable recovery plan" for governments intent on extricating their economies from the world’s sharpest downturn … They have provided emergency financial assistance and debt relief to a number of low-income countries during the unfolding of the pandemic. The World Energy Outlook introduced a detailed energy transition scenario in 2009 – then called the 450 Scenario. For example, energy efficiency retrofits can often be ramped up quickly, as can projects to install or improve urban transport infrastructure. Energy poverty and the affordability of energy is a critical concern for policy makers. The resilience of low-income economies would be substantially improved by increased energy efficiency, better access to electricity and progress on clean cooking solutions. Undertake deep retrofits of government-owned buildings. Energy efficiency measures deliver the largest overall reductions in emissions. If all countries were to follow the proposals set out in the sustainable recovery plan: The sustainable recovery plan would have a marked impact on GHG emissions. Improved energy sector resilience and reliability would greatly reduce economic losses and lost labour hours. This report is the IEA’s review of global developments in energy efficiency. While the construction jobs for these investments would be created locally, some of the manufacturing jobs, which make up around 20% of the total job-years created, would be created outside the region making the investment. Many people in developing economies still lack access to modern energy and clean cooking. The SDS looks very different from the 450 Scenario proposed in the WEO-2009, for three main reasons: Keep up to date with our latest news and analysis by subscribing to our regular newsletter. Developing a more modern and resilient energy system requires investment in longer term infrastructure and energy efficiency projects. This is because, in addition to the direct increase in GDP from the public and private spending in the energy sector, there are a number of other benefits that help amplify the boost to GDP. Construction and manufacturing would account for the vast majority of the immediate jobs boost during the sustainable recovery plan, but long-lived capital assets built as a result of the plan would also give rise to continuing operations and maintenance (O&M) and management jobs. It is important to note, however, that the assessment of measures may vary from one country to another. In the power sector, 60% of the 7 million total job-years created would be in renewables. Thank you for subscribing. Cross-border collaboration could also be useful in helping to re-establish some international supply chains disrupted by the Covid-19 crisis. EXPERTS IN Rail IEA provides heavy civil support to some of the largest class I railways in the country, as well as regional light railways. Most of the elements with negative abatement costs are efficiency measures in the industrial, buildings and transport sectors. A much smaller number of these jobs would be created, but they would last for a much longer period. This is not something that is within the power of the energy sector alone to deliver. The scale of the needed investment for the plan means that in practice most of it is going to have to come from the private sector. Globally, the sustainable recovery plan requires just under $300 billion of government spending each year over the period to 2023. Turning this around and strengthening a process of reform would provide an additional boost to emissions reductions from the sustainable recovery plan. Overview Reports Contacts The goal of Task 12 is to foster international collaboration and knowledge creation in PV environmental sustainability and safety, as crucial elements for the sustainable growth of PV as a major contributor to global energy supply and emission reductions of … A critical aim of the sustainable recovery plan is to provide a boost to the global economy. In the longer term, however, targeted support to develop and deploy emerging clean energy technologies and boost the skills base of domestic workers could bring important benefits in terms of sustainability and resilience. For example, there are some measures that would provide very cost-effective emission reductions but would not provide a major boost to jobs. The enormity of the shock caused by the Covid-19 pandemic is prompting governments around the world to develop economic recovery plans that will shape infrastructure and industries for decades. The public to private split is broadly based on historical investment ratios between state-owned enterprises and private firms across the various measures, with differing values for advanced economies and the rest of the world, but with allowance for the higher level of government support that may be needed in some sectors (such as transport). However it is important that these projects are compatible with long-term energy security and environmental objectives. In drawing up a sustainable recovery plan for energy, we have focused on three overarching objectives: to create jobs, to boost economic growth, and to improve resilience and sustainability. Around one-third of the CO2 emissions reductions that would occur as a result of the sustainable recovery plan have negative abatement costs, meaning they would save emissions while also saving money. This means additional spending on more efficient buildings, industrial processes and transport, as well as new demand-side infrastructure, e.g. The scenario got its name from 450 parts per million (ppm), the CO2 concentration that was seen at that time to be consistent with a 50% likelihood of keeping average global temperature rise below 2 °C (assuming that net zero emissions were reached in 2100). Examples of specific policies that could be adopted under each of the pillars are provided in the table below. Within the sustainable recovery plan, direct government investment focusses mainly on areas where private investment is difficult to mobilise or where the levels of private investment seem likely to fall short of what is needed. A level of net negative emissions significantly smaller than that used in most scenarios assessed by the IPCC would provide the Sustainable Development Scenario with a 50% probability of limiting the rise in global temperatures to 1.5°C. More than 2.6 billion people also relied on traditional uses of biomass, coal or kerosene as their primary cooking fuel in 2018. Investments in the 2021-2023 period are therefore aligned with the Sustainable Recovery depicted in the World Energy Outlook Special Report. Suppliers for high-tech goods and services (for example relating to power networks and high speed rail) are often located in advanced economies, while basic fabrication materials and appliances are often manufactured outside of advanced economies. Many energy measures – in particular energy efficiency – would deliver savings for consumers and so increase household disposable income for other purposes, thereby supporting employment in other economic activities. There is no trade-off between achieving climate objectives and delivering on energy access and air pollution goals. Accessing private financing could be a challenge for some countries considering sustainable recovery plans. Investment in new industries, such battery manufacturing and hydrogen production, could also provide an important runway for future job growth. The increase in GDP growth is less in advanced economies than in the rest of the world. These conditions are all met in the SDS. This spending would be additional to the annual levels of expenditure on clean energy measures that have occurred in recent years and includes both public spending and private finance that would be mobilised by public policies. Since then the global goalposts have shifted, technological progress has been uneven, and emissions have continued to grow. Investment in new infrastructure such as electricity networks and in energy efficiency increases the overall productivity of both workers and capital. You can unsubscribe at any time by clicking the link at the bottom of any IEA newsletter. This scenario requires $40 billion of annual investment between 2021 and 2030 to reach universal access, making full use of decentralised solutions. EXPERTS IN Rail. Taking into account country-specific circumstances and the world’s shared goals on sustainability, we have developed a practical, concrete and time-limited global sustainable recovery plan for the energy sector that would collectively deliver on all three objectives. It starts with the SDG outcomes and then works back to set out what would be needed to deliver these goals in a realistic and cost-effective way. IEA Bioenergy has launched a new report today, carried out under its Task 43 (Sustainable Biomass Supply), on sustainability governance approaches for bioenergy and biomaterials supply chains. Where central banks are expanding the supply of money through the purchase of assets, the introduction of appropriate eligibility criteria (for example, a preference to purchase corporate bonds that meet certain conditions), would help to ensure that the finance is directed towards sectors and technologies that are aligned with the goals of the sustainable recovery plan (Matikainen, Campiglio and Zenghelis, 2017). For example, new gas-fired power capacity might lead to emission reductions in countries where it replaces coal, but might “lock-in” a higher level of emissions in countries that do not currently rely heavily on coal-fired power plants. The enormity of the shock caused by the Covid-19 pandemic is prompting governments around the world to develop economic recovery plans that will shape infrastructure and industries for decades. Despite nations investing in retrofitting and businesses looking to make energy savings amid lockdown restrictions, global progress on energy efficiency has slowed in 2020, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). Jobs related to cars account for over 10%, and those arising from other transport measures are also about 10%. The Sustainable Development Scenario explicitly supports these broader development efforts (in contrast to most other decarbonisation scenarios), in particular through its energy access and cleaner air dimensions. Support for innovation and the development of new technologies is unlikely to create a large increase in jobs or economic activity in the short term. The four main areas of IEA focus are: For example, it is estimated that remittances in 2020 going to countries in sub-Saharan Africa could fall by almost 25% from 2019 levels, while remittances to countries in Latin America could fall by 19% (Ratha et al., 2020). Many could also face particularly severe economic difficulties because of high existing levels of public sector debt and high levels of informal or insecure jobs; in some cases these difficulties may be compounded by weakness in their institutions. An average of around 130 gigawatts (GW) of additional wind and solar PV global capacity would be installed each year from 2021 to 2023 (additional to the levels that would be installed in the absence of the recovery plan). The Annual Report also includes a report from the Executive Committee and a detailed progress report on each of the Tasks. In total, the efficiency of around 20 million dwellings would be drastically improved each year as a result of the recovery plan. In terms of annual changes in GDP, this means that global economic growth each year to 2023 would be 1.1% higher on average than it would have been otherwise. We estimate that the overall spending need for the plan is around $1 trillion per year over the next three years: this represents about 0.7% of global GDP today, and includes both public spending and private finance that would be mobilised by public policies. In fact, some countries have introduced additional price interventions to protect newly vulnerable consumers, particularly in the electricity sector (IEA, 2020). Publications. Most regions have a domestic supply chain to support construction material production and implementation, and so most of these jobs would be created within the regions where the investment takes place. IFIs and MDBs have also been among the largest foreign direct investors in clean energy technologies in developing countries in recent years, offering short-term credit or guarantees (to improve risk-adjusted returns for private investors), helping to remove barriers to investment and providing technical assistance. Mobilise private finance. A further $30 billion would be spent each year to accelerate deployment of recharging networks for electric vehicles, upgrade public transport, and improve walking and cycling infrastructure. Rights at work should ensure that women and men have equal opportunities, are protected from discrimination and have access to maternity and parental leave allowances. The plan runs from 2021 to 2023, but countries could decide to maintain support for particular measures or to incentivise new activities beyond the three-year period considered here. Final energy consumption would be around 350 million tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe) lower than it would have been otherwise by the end of the spending period. Welcome to the Home of IEA Bioenergy Task 43 We explore technical and economic strategies to increase the quantity of biomass available, improve the quality of biomass delivered for different energy purposes, and explore strategies to increase the value and foster confidence in biomass supply for both direct and cascade use of biomass for energy. The emissions reductions from the three years of the sustainable recovery plan would therefore provide a much higher level of CO2 emissions reductions than was caused by the Covid-19 crisis, but achieve this through structural changes in the way that society produces and consumes energy rather than by curtailing economic activity. Operations, maintenance and management job creation. It takes account of the circumstances of individual countries, as well as existing energy project pipelines and current market conditions. For example, former manufacturing workers could work on assembling highly efficient commercial durable goods, and former construction workers could undertake building retrofits. Designed to complement other reports in the Market Report Series on energy efficiency, renewables, coal, natural gas and oil, this report focuses on developments in the world’s electricity markets amid the Covid-19 pandemic. 1.6-1.7°C Develop a strong pipeline of new projects. One of the five key policy pillars of the sustainable recovery plan is the mobilisation of private financing to complement the direct government expenditure. The cost of sustaining these jobs is not included in the sustainable recovery plan: they would be funded from the operating revenues of firms using the assets developed under the plan. through an increase in taxes or reduction in government consumption). Energy systems would become more sustainable as a result of the plan. It Annual reports The Annual Report highlights the activities and accomplishments of the IEA PVPS Technology Collaboration Program. Co-operate on cross-border energy efficiency standards to expand the market size for more efficient goods and technologies. Around 12 million car purchases on average each year would be purchases of more efficient internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEs) (including hybrids), while around 6.5 million car purchases would be electric vehicles. The economic impact of Covid-19 is likely to be felt most profoundly by the poor and economically vulnerable segments of society. The current low cost of capital adds force to the case for supporting research and development, providing market incentives, promoting commercial demonstration plants, and encouraging the scaling up of manufacturing capacity. The already sluggish pace of global progress on energy efficiency is set to slow further this year as a result of the economic impacts of the Covid-19 crisis, deepening the challenge of reaching international energy and climate goals and making stronger government action critical The sustainable recovery plan would provide further long-term employment by “inducing” further jobs across the economy: spending by those in new jobs would lead to further job creation in other sectors. Achieving universal access will transform the lives of hundreds of millions, and reduce the severe health impacts of indoor air pollution, overwhelmingly caused by smoke from cooking. The need for such investment should be carefully assessed; it should last only as long as necessary and it should be undertaken with a view to facilitate private finance where appropriate. The strategy covers the entire IKEA value chain and franchise system, with ambitions leading to 2030. The spending associated with this plan is around $1 trillion for each of the next three years (i.e. Such improvements would be particularly beneficial for women, who are generally responsible for collecting fuel and cooking, and who have the highest exposure to fine particulate matter. Domestic policy frameworks and market designs play a key role in attracting private finance. Promote the use of energy management systems in light and heavy industries. Some of the spending on energy projects will need to be undertaken directly by governments. Just over 30 GW of hydro and nuclear power capacity would benefit from lifetime extensions each year to 2023. from 2021 to 2023). In the WEO-2020, the Sustainable Development Scenario also integrates the stimulus packages required for a global sustainable recovery from Covid-19. While initial investment from the recovery plan is needed to stimulate action, the savings from the projects would accrue to firms and households, reducing short-term risks of energy insufficiency and income stress, and would eventually be reinvested to stimulate further economic activity and induce further job growth. Strengthen and widen energy efficiency goals and promote the use of zero-carbon fuels in car manufacturing industries. There would also be more than 0.5 million permanent jobs associated with operating and maintaining the assets constructed by the sustainable recovery plan. The recent reduction in LPG prices substantially reduces the payback period for households switching to LPG cooking equipment, so long as savings are passed on to consumers and not accompanied by tax increases. Not all countries have access to international capital markets, and those that do are facing higher financing costs because of increased sovereign risks (Spiegel, Schwank and Obaidy, 2020). Some rely on income from oil and gas exports and have seen a major drop in revenues. We look first at the temporary construction and manufacturing jobs that would be created and then at the longer term operations, maintenance and management jobs. In the Sustainable Development Scenario, strong policy support and international co-operation are an integral part of national and international recovery plans, and this enables a ramping up of progress on expanding access programmes to achieve universal access to electricity and clean cooking by 2030, despite the near-term slowdown caused by the health crisis and economic downturn. Some measures in the sustainable recovery plan would stimulate demand for imports of goods and services. The sustainable recovery plan – with $1 trillion dollars of annual spending through 2023 – is estimated to lead to a 3.5% increase in real global GDP in 2023 above the level that it would have been without the spending. However, we estimate that around 40% of the jobs created globally in the sustainable recovery plan would be in specialised positions, which would require substantial retraining programmes. We estimate that nearly 0.5 million O&M and management jobs would be created by the measures realised in the sustainable recovery plan. Around $45 billion would be spent each year to accelerate the development and production of new projects and industrial capacity for clean energy technologies such as hydrogen, batteries, carbon capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS) and small modular nuclear reactors (SMRs). By using analysis of policies, energy data, and technology trends, this report provides a comprehensive view of energy efficiency trends worldwide. The shift away from the traditional use of biomass in cooking towards modern and clean alternatives is the main factor leading to the large reductions in PM2.5. The SDS holds the temperature rise to below 1.8 °C with a 66% probability without reliance on global net-negative CO2 emissions; this is equivalent to limiting the temperature rise to 1.65 °C with a 50% probability. Ideally those working on energy efficiency, for example, would return to a revived retrofit and construction economy or retrain for other fields. While workers may be available from overseas to fill immediate skills gaps, investment in retraining and capacity building would be essential to supply this segment of the labour market. A number of end-uses in buildings could switch to renewable sources, such as solar water heaters and biomass boilers, to reduce fossil fuel and electricity use. Notes: PV = photovoltaic; CCUS = carbon capture, utilisation and storage; SMRs = small modular nuclear reactors, tCO2-eq = tonnes of carbon-dioxide equivalent. This is double the annual investment in STEPS, but still less than 2% of the total energy sector investment in SDS. Worldwide, investment in energy efficiency worldwide is likely to be down 9% year-on-year Establishing clean cooking infrastructure in rural areas would improve the ability of governments to reach and support these populations, particularly during times of crisis. The public spending required would be equivalent to less than 10% of fiscal expenditure in recovery plans announced to date; after the 2008-09 financial crisis, green measures accounted for around 16% of total stimulus measures. You can unsubscribe at any time by clicking the link at the bottom of any IEA newsletter. The largest increase in supply investment comes from renewables-based power, which is on average double today’s level between 2020 and 2050. We hope to help and inspire people to lead more sustainable lives every day with our products. The sustainable recovery plan improves security and resilience in a number of ways. 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